The courage and creativity shown by the leaders in Athens and Skopje to resolve their decades-long dispute should be an inspiration to everyone in the region.  As U.S. Ambassadors in Belgrade and Pristina, we are convinced that sober, visionary political leadership can lead to a comprehensive agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, with mutual recognition at its core.  This achievement would lay the foundation for a more peaceful and prosperous future for all the peoples in this region.

This is why we today launch an appeal: it’s time for Kosovo to suspend the tariffs, for Serbia to respond constructively, for provocations by both sides to end, for Belgrade and Pristina to return to the European Union-led Dialogue, and for both sides to embrace peace boldly.  If you do so, we are optimistic you can reach a historic normalization agreement in 2019.

You have the full support of the United States, and we will do whatever we can to help you succeed and to build the trust necessary to develop and implement a comprehensive agreement.  President Trump recently wrote to Serbia’s and Kosovo’s leaders to encourage both countries to “seize this moment and to exercise the political leadership in making decisions to balance the interests of both countries.”  President Trump added “it would be extremely regrettable to miss this unique opportunity for peace, security and economic growth.” President Trump was equally clear when he addressed the UN General Assembly:  responsible leaders have an obligation to serve their citizens.

We believe an agreement is possible, and hope to celebrate together with you, just as we celebrate the courage of Greek and Macedonian leaders.  In fact, President Trump has already invited Presidents Vucic and Thaci to the White House to commemorate the achievement as soon as it occurs.  The United States does not, and will not, prescribe what the solution should look like, but believes it must be implementable in both Kosovo and Serbia, and must contribute to the long-term stability of the region.  It is up to leaders and their teams to resume EU-led talks to explore what is possible, and to communicate transparently with their citizens – both to ensure negotiations reflect the will of the people, and to help overcome anxiety and suspicion.

We recognize this is not easy.  We are not blind to the historical events and ongoing tensions that have led to the mistrust and misperception that burden the relationship.  That is why any agreement must be wide-ranging and mutually beneficial, to give both Kosovo and Serbia a stake in its success.  That is also why the United States is committed to working with Serbia and Kosovo to ensure that the two sides effectively develop and implement a sustainable agreement.  Recent steps by both Belgrade and Pristina that raise tensions must stop if there is to be any hope of bringing lasting peace, prosperity, and justice to the region.  If the two sides fail to seize this opportunity, you risk losing the best opportunity in a generation.

The status quo has held back economic and political progress in both countries, and led professionals and young people to seek their futures in more stable nations with more dynamic economies.  In their place, organized crime, corruption, and other extremist elements are taking root, posing threats to regional and European security.

Neither country benefits from continued obstructionism and delay.  Serbia’s and Kosovo’s citizens deserve a future where their children and grandchildren will know peace and prosperity rather than conflict and economic hardship.

A durable, implementable compromise agreement is in both countries’ interest.  Long-term stability and prosperity for both Kosovo and Serbia depend on a return to the EU-led Dialogue, and the courage to overcome the past and build a shared future together.  If Serbia and Kosovo are ready to embark on this path, the United States will be at your side every step of the way.

Kyle Scott is the United States Ambassador to Belgrade, Serbia.  Philip Kosnett is the United States Ambassador to Pristina, Kosovo.  

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Only three countries from the region score above the global average of 43. Georgia leads the region with just 58 points on the CPI, followed by Montenegro (45) and Belarus (44).

At the very bottom, Turkmenistan earns the lowest score in the region (20), followed by Uzbekistan (23) and Tajikistan (25).

Unsurprisingly, given its average score of 35, Eastern Europe and Central Asia is the second lowest scoring region in the index, ahead of Sub-Saharan Africa which has an average score of 32.

With this dismal reality in mind, a disturbing trend is emerging. Highly corrupt countries that score poorly on the CPI also tend to have fragile democratic institutions and their citizens have weaker political and civil rights.   

CORRUPTION AND THE CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY

From Russia to Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, many democratic institutions and norms across the region are currently under threat – often from authoritarian rule. Governments throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia are failing to preserve the checks and balances that are foundational to democracy and instrumental in controlling corruption.

Corruption thrives where weak democratic practices exist. Combined with a lack of political will to combat corruption in the public sector, countries across the region are undermining the political rights of their citizens. As a result, people are unable to speak out, demonstrate or associate with organisations or activist groups – at least not without fear of consequences. At the same time, corruption locks these countries in a vicious cycle where the ruling politicians have no real incentive to allow for democratisation and strengthening of independent institutions.

In many post-Soviet countries, checks and balances do not exist that would ordinarily keep powerful private individuals and groups from exerting exceptional influence over government decisions. In these settings, illicit lobbying practices take place and conflicts of interest go undisclosed.

Among European Union (EU) candidate and potential candidate countries, or those countries currently in accession negotiations with the EU, four out of seven have seen minor drops in their CPI scores since last year. Despite firm EU conditions on curbing corruption and ensuring institutions are free of political influence, many governments across the region fail to show true commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

Specifically, many of these countries fail to disclose sufficient information about electoral campaigns and political party finances. In addition, these countries act against civil society organisations, investigative journalists and political opponents.

One of the biggest impediments to fighting corruption in Eastern Europe and Central Asia is state capture, where powerful individuals or groups seize control of national decision-making and use corrupt means to circumvent justice.

Without sufficient checks and balances in countries throughout the region, institutions suffer and undemocratic practices persist. While governments claim to prioritise combating political corruption, in reality, they fail to take concrete steps to do so. This erodes citizens’ trust in their own government as well as in international bodies and agreements, and contributes to higher rates of corruption.

IMPROVERS

Unfortunately, given the region’s low-scoring trends, there are very few countries making any real progress in the fight against corruption.

While EU-candidate Albania increased by five points in the last five years, moving from 31 in 2013 to 36 in 2018, it dropped two points since last year. This may be due to a political stalemate that blocked several anti-corruption reforms from moving forward. With a new judicial vetting process and anti-corruption institutional framework almost complete, it remains to be seen whether Albania will improve its score in the future.

DECLINERS

This year, Azerbaijan (scoring 25), Russia (28), Kazakhstan (31), Kosovo (37), Serbia (39) and Montenegro (45) are among the countries which have either declined in their CPI score or continue to stagnate.

Azerbaijan drastically dropped six points on the CPI, moving from 31 in 2017 to 25 in 2018. This decline follows a continued crackdown on civil society and independent journalists. Over the last couple of years, the Azerbaijani government has made it immensely difficult for civil society organisations, including our chapter Transparency International Azerbaijan, to accept international funding that would allow them to continue to operate. By tightening access to funds, the government is curbing citizens’ ability to organise and speak out.

In addition, in September 2017, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) published an investigation that revealed a US$2.9 billion money laundering operation and slush fund run by Azerbaijan’s ruling elite. The Azerbaijani Laundromat operation used the siphoned funds to promote the country’s image abroad and distract from human rights violations committed under its authoritarian regime, according to the report.

With a score of 28, Russia dropped one point since 2017, an unsurprising decline given weak political and civil rights as well as an ineffective system of checks and balances. This low score reflects a lack of trust among experts and businesspeople in the ability of the government to yield sustainable anti-corruption action.

Cronyism remains a cornerstone of Russian social and political processes. Independent media are rare, as are independent NGOs, which are often replaced with organisations created and financed by the government. In addition, the judicial system is often biased, with courts administering large fines on independent actors to keep them in line with the government’s agenda.

For example, in 2018, Vladimir Litvinenko, rector of St. Petersburg Mining University and previous academic supervisor of President Vladimir Putin, sued our chapter, Transparency International Russia (TI-Russia), for publishing an investigation into the misuse of public funds.

The court ruled in favour of Mr. Litvinenko, concluding that while TI-Russia’s investigation presented factual evidence, it also damaged Mr. Litvinenko’s reputation by exposing his misuse of public funds, and for that, the chapter was fined one million roubles. 

TI-Russia successfully raised one million roubles in less than a week to pay the fine imposed by the court, largely thanks to hundreds of online donations from Russian citizens.

Signatures on international agreements such as the Criminal Law Convention on Corruption and its monitoring body, the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO), which are both part of the Council of Europe, along with commitments from the 2016 Anti-Corruption Summit, seem to create an illusion of progress in Russia without delivering real results. The Civil Law Convention on Corruption, which allows citizens and private sector actors to seek redress for corruption cases, remains a non-priority for Russia, along with implementing lobbying regulations and whistleblower protections.

With a score of 39, Serbia dropped two points since last year, a trend that may persist if the government continues to undermine those bodies and institutions that are responsible for maintaining the rule of law. In 2018, despite opposition from NGOs, professional associations and others, the government has pushed for increased influence over the judiciary.

Similarly, the government is working to reduce public access to information by exempting state-owned enterprises from disclosing information. In addition, despite government claims of supporting free media, journalist associations are having difficulty engaging in the development of Serbia’s new media strategy.

Our chapter, Transparency Serbia, is a strong advocate for anti-corruption measures and independent oversight bodies. To advance these efforts, the chapter conducts anti-corruption research, monitors the implementation of EU accession requirements and participates in NGO coalitions aimed at improving democratic and anti-corruption frameworks.

With a score of 37, Kosovo dropped two points on the CPI since 2017. Some of the biggest anti-corruption challenges in Kosovo include insufficient transparency, weak institutions and rule of law and insufficient space for citizen engagement. To address these issues, our chapter, Kosova Democratic Institute, monitors public institutions, advocates for transparency of political party financing and runs various campaigns to engage citizens in national decision-making.

With a score of 45, Montenegro dropped one point since last year. Despite its advancement in EU integration, the country has yet to significantly improve its rule of law. Concerns around political party financing and a lack of financial disclosure cast a shadow on electoral results.

In an environment dominated by the same ruling elite for over two decades, the effects of state capture are evident in Montenegro. Yet despite these challenges, our chapter, MANS, remains a strong advocate for strengthening the rule of law and improving free access to information.

COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Ukraine, Macedonia and Armenia are all the countries to watch over the next few years. Categorised by their challenging political landscapes, only Armenia bucks the trend with a positive change in government.

Despite an unchanged CPI score of 36, recent political developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina are worrying. Following elections in October, which raised concerns of fraud and poor administration, the regional public prosecutor in the city of Banja Luka dismissed calls for an investigation into politician, Milorad Dodik, for exercising illegal pressure against voters during his campaign.

More recently, authorities in Banja Luka attacked peaceful protesters, arrested and detained opposition leaders and activists, and banned public gatherings. This is a clear example of alleged corruption in an election campaign leading to a crackdown on democratic institutions and participation. Transparency International Bosnia and Herzegovina is working to advance transparency and accountability of prosecution, monitor financing of electoral campaigns and assist citizens in reporting corruption.

With a score of 58, Georgia increased by two points since last year, however the country now faces democratic backsliding, making it both vulnerable to high-level corruption and a country to watch moving forward.

This downturn is due to a lack of accountability of law enforcement, corruption and political interference in the judiciary, state capture and government-sponsored attacks on independent civil society, among other issues. Despite an urgent need to investigate cases of corruption and misconduct in the government, Georgia has failed to establish independent agencies to take on this mandate.

Impunity contributes to public distrust. According to a recent poll conducted by our chapter, Transparency International Georgia, 36 per cent of citizens believe that public officials abuse their power for personal gain. This is up from only 12 per cent in 2013.

Progress in anti-corruption will continue to stall and reverse if the Georgian government does not take immediate steps to ensure the independence of institutions, including the judiciary, and support civil society, which enhances political engagement and public oversight.

Although Ukraine improved its CPI score by two points, moving from 30 in 2017 to 32 in 2018, the enforcement of anti-corruption reforms launched in 2014 remains incomplete, leaving Ukraine well below the average global score of 43.

Four years since anti-corruption legal and institutional frameworks were introduced, progress is too slow. The newly established anti-corruption bodies have not succeeded in bringing to account any corrupt high-level official, even though a number of proceedings have been initiated.

Public disillusionment with the Ukrainian government is growing steadily. Citizens are disenchanted with the results of the reforms and have little confidence in the ability of the government to improve the situation. Yet, despite this distrust, an active and independent civil society could help control corruption and improve confidence in government institutions. Although it often takes years for anti-corruption laws to yield results, and Ukraine must redouble its efforts to ensure progress.

Additionally, as pressure from the international community and civil society continues to grow, so does the resistance of those with vested interests in power. As a result, Ukraine is an important country to watch in the years to come.

RECOMMENDATIONS

While many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have well-designed laws, which are essential for anti-corruption efforts, these laws are not enough to truly combat corruption in the region. Corruption takes place when there is opportunity and impunity. To this end, we call on governments to:

• provide free space for civil society to operate, including protecting free speech and the right to organise and protest
• engage citizens in monitoring government spending
• reform the judicial system and improve integrity and accountability across government institutions
• provide free access to information and improve enforcement mechanisms as a precondition for successful anti-corruption efforts.

Source: Transparency International
Image: Copyright, Getty Images
For any press enquiries please contact press@transparency.org

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Presidents Hashim Thaci and Aleksandar Vucic, of Kosovo and Serbia respectively, have recently put forth a proposal for a land swap. Or in more precise terms, a partition of Kosovo.

While neither of the presidents have been clear on what the deal would entail, Thaci has repeated that it would be an opportunity for the Presevo Valley, a predominantly Albanian region in southern Serbia, to join Kosovo.

Ostensibly, the deal would settle once and for all the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, Kosovo would be fully recognized and become part of the United Nations, and both countries could meander together towards a future in the European Union.

The National Security Advisor John Bolton said the United States will support any mutually agreed upon solution.  The European Union seems to tentatively agree that discussions should begin along these lines. Only Angela Merkel’s Germany continues to be against any border changes, a continuation of the policy once seen as sacrosanct by the international community.  Meanwhile, the idea has come under fire from many other stakeholders, experts of the region and more prominently from the three former High Commissioners in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who also issued a statement against any proposed deal.

Partition has never historically worked out well. From India-Pakistan, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Ireland-Northern Ireland, Palestine-Israel, Cyprus-N. Cyprus to Bosnia-Herzegovina-Republika Srpska. It has always been a violent exercise that inevitably becomes about ethnic hegemony and displaced peoples. “Partition remains something that powerful states may implement on the anatomies of weaker polities—as Serbia tried to do to Bosnia-Herzegovina,” the academic Brendan O’Leary noted.

It isn’t illegal however. The Badinter Commission, when providing legal advice on the breakup of the Former Yugoslavia in 1992 stated: “whatever the circumstances, the right to self-determination must not involve changes to existing frontiers at the time of independence except where the States concerned agree otherwise.”

At the European Forum Alpbach this year, Thaci said of himself and Vucic, “We’re not problematic guys – we are trying to do an agreement.” Yet, the agreement itself might be one of the most problematic deals with ramifications for both Kosovo and the entire region.

Some of the immediate regional ramifications look like this:

Republika Srpska, RS, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb-ruled region,  would immediately secede – something that the RS President Milorad Dodik has been warning of for some time.  I have no doubt that this would soon be followed by Herzegovina, the Croatian part of Bosnia, seceding too and de facto hammering the last nail into the coffin of  the Dayton Agreement. Both would attempt to join Serbia or Croatia, respectively, and could potentially ignite another civil war as the remaining Bosniak dominated rump would try to hold onto their territory. The RS could attempt to seize more territory particularly if they have backing from the Serbian military.

Despite blithe assertions that Macedonia has overcome its nationalist past with a new multi-ethnic government that is pro-Atlantic in viewpoint and has neutered the former VMRO-DPMNE, nationalist Gruevski-led government, this situation is now only one year old. Macedonia still faces a crucial referendum on the country’s name in the fall that, if it is a yes vote, could pave the way to NATO and eventual EU membership. If Albanian nationalists in Macedonia decide to push for a ‘Greater Albania’ in the wake of a ‘land swap’ in the form of reunification with Kosovo and/or Albania, this last year of positive reconciliation processes in Macedonia would be finished, and again civil war may be a possibility.

Why stop here? Joining Kosovo with Albania would obviously come next. Then the Albanian part of Montenegro could rejoin Albania and Kosovo. Finally Chameria could join Albania from Greece. That way, we could restart World War II.

There was a reason for the international community’s insistence on a clause against the shifting of borders to be put into the Kosovo constitution. After years of peace, however unsatisfactory they may have been, shifting borders will create a chaotic situation that will once again swallow needless energy and lives. However, it will give great joy to the nationalists, warmongers and authoritarians who have long sought to destroy multi-ethnicity in the Balkans.

Out of all of the hot takes, twitter chatter, the learned academic analysis and think tankery, one question hasn’t been considered much: who benefits from all of this?

Let’s say that Serbia recognizes Kosovo, Kosovo gets the UN seat and the five outliers in the EU recognize its sovereignty. So far it seems the deal between the two states will not guarantee visa liberalization allowing Kosovo citizens to travel visa-free like the rest of the Balkans. Nor does it address issues like state capture or rule of law –issues which are currently bringing Kosovars onto the streets in their thousands to protest. Nor does it address education, healthcare or poverty.

But it’s these internal issues that are at the forefront of the average Kosovar’s life. While having a UN seat and being recognized by all of the EU members are the kind of macro issues that clearly need to be dealt with, that just over 57% of Kosovo youth are unemployed would seem to be just as pressing. A UN seat would not erase poverty in Kosovo.

Many ordinary Kosovars would also not agree to give up a swathe of land which holds one of largest water reservoirs in the country and has at least half of the largest mine.  Essentially, Kosovo is giving up strategic economic and structural assets for a piece of land abutting crucial road infrastructure that directly connects Southern Serbia to all points in the Mediterranean, while bypassing Kosovo completely.

Christopher Hitchens once wrote in an article from 2003, entitled the The Perils of Partition:

“The largely secular Muslims of Bosnia and Kosovo were, however, the main victims of the cave-in to partition in the former Yugoslavia, and are now the chief beneficiaries of that policy’s reversal. They were also among the first to test the improvised but increasingly systematic world order, in which rescue operations are undertaken from the developed world, assisted by a nexus of nongovernmental organizations, and then mutate into semi-permanent administrations.”

Kosovars are being told that this deal will end the isolation and allow Kosovo to develop into a strong, independent state. However, past history, much of it recent history from this region as well as globally,  rebuts that assertion. The question is: are we making the same mistake once again?

Bronwyn Jones is an international development expert, writer and editor. She has lived, studied and worked across the Balkans for almost 20 years. Currently, she works as a consultant for international organizations in Prishtina, is a member of the first women’s rugby club in Kosovo, and runs the blog SparkFest.

Source: Prishtina Insight

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Detailing the challenges Albania faces in its EU accession process may seem like an insurmountable task for a short opinion piece, but in considering some often overlooked concepts we can gain a better understanding of the situation. The tendency to focus solely on EU accession criteria and conditions has created a myopic view of Albania’s challenges.

It has distracted from what I would argue are the true challenges: the political process, the Albanian inferiority complex, and cultural integration. Too often has the focus been on making sufficient progress on judicial and anti-corruption reforms. This in a way has prevented moving talks along beyond the technical conditions and making meaningful strides.

Why did the EU Council in June opt to delay the process and not to fully approve the EU Commission’s recommendation in April to start talks with Albania immediately? In order to understand why it only reluctantly agreed to open accession talks with Albania in June 2019, we must first understand the reasons why the accession criteria were set up in the first place.

The Copenhagen criteria were defined during the European Council summit in the Danish capital in 1993 to ensure that future member states would not destabilise the EU and to persuade anti-enlargement member states. Apart from the political, economic and legal criteria, a fourth criterion was added: the absorption capacity of the EU.

The first three criteria are both supra-national and technical in nature where the EU Commission and the EU Parliament are involved. This is the technical process that includes measurable indicators. Albania at this stage fulfils these technical conditions and received a yes vote.

The fourth criterion is inter-governmental and political in nature where the EU Council and the Parliaments of member states are involved. It guarantees member states with asymmetrical power in the negotiations with candidate countries. This is the political process. And for this process Albania received a yes but not now vote.

Could it be that Albania is not perceived as a capable nor as a deserving European nation-state? I cannot provide an answer here but what I can say is that the reverse was true for Romania and Bulgaria. They received a no vote for the technical conditions in 2006 but a yes vote for the political conditions in 2007.

Albania received a yes vote from the Commission in 2016 too, but the Council’s decision was put on hold because of national elections in France and Germany in 2017. Are national elections in key member states now an official criterion too?

The truth is that the Copenhagen criteria are a myth in the sense that the demands are politicised and the goalposts keep on being moved. They are conditioned by the geo-strategic interests of key member states. The challenge for Albania is not solely to fulfill the criteria but to further convince everyone that is a deserving and a serious European partner.

Albania must work much harder than its Serbian and Montenegrin neighbours to join in the next decade. But let’s not forget that both Serbia and Montenegro, which have already begun accession negotiations, also have huge problems with organised crime, corruption and the rule of law.

Nonetheless, Albanians share some of the blame for this delay. On the one hand, the previous governments arguably did not take the accession process seriously. On the other hand, Albanians suffer from the Impostor Syndrome, a psychological phenomenon in which people are convinced that they do not deserve the success they have achieved.

Delays in EU accession talks, whilst watching neighbouring countries make important strides, has fuelled this inferiority complex further creating a vicious circle; many Albanians are now saying that they do not deserve to join the EU. How can Albanians expect to be legitimised as a European nation-state when they themselves are in doubt? This is a Hamletian problem!

That’s unfortunate as Albania has a very rich history, which is in fact European and without historical deficiencies. Also, it is one of few nations in Europe to have two states (Albania and Kosovo, Greece and Cyprus, Germany and Austria, etc.). This shows resilience, not weakness.

How symbolic it would have been if the accession negotiations would have begun this year, which marks the 550th anniversary of the death of Albania’s emblematic national hero George Kastriot Skanderbeg? He is the irrefutable proof that Albanians are a genuine European nation with a historic state-building aptitude.

Lastly, it should be highlighted that the integration challenge is multifold and universal; in addition to the technical and political dimension, there is also the decisive yet implicit criterion of cultural integration. Therefore, it is vital to showcase Albanian history conceptualised as European cultural history.

This would demonstrate that Albania is in fact an European nation with citizens from many different backgrounds and religious beliefs living harmoniously. Thus dispelling the idea that Albania is simply a Muslim-majority nation (who came up with this erroneous concept?); a point that is crucial as anti-Muslim sentiments continue to rise in the EU and in the US.

This would also help address the perception of Albania as one of the biggest exporters of gangsters in Europe. Crime is not a gene, it is not part of the DNA of any nation including the Albanians, Serbians, Montenegrins, etc. It is simply a symptom of post-communist transition which has created systemic economic inequality.

The technical challenge of the next stage could be met by Albania. The biggest challenges remain the political process, the inferiority complex, and cultural integration. The EU would gain from Albania joining; it has a secular nationalism rooted in language not religion (unlike Serbia for example). Could this be the missing puzzle piece to build a multicultural Union?

Albania’s role is to help the EU understand this. All resources and knowledge should be focused on this objective. In this regard, and in fulfilling the technical conditions, the current government has seriously done a much better job than the previous government. But now it must mobilise every Albanian to increase the pressure on the EU Council to start accession negotiations as soon as possible.

Post scriptum

Albania became a member state of Comecon, a quasi-Eastern European Economic Union in February 1949, only one month after the organisation was established by the USSR. Of course, the EU is way more complex and more comprehensive than Comecon ever was or wished to be; the EU is a sui generis liberal development in human history.

Having said that, the fact remains that even today, 27 years after the fall of communism in Albania and 15 years after the Thessaloniki Summit that gave Albania an EU perspective, it is still uncertain when and if it will join. The brutal communist regime lasted 47 years, only 20 years more than the dramatically ongoing post-Communist transition.

How much longer do Albanians need to wait to join the EU? Another 20 years? This delay is unacceptable. The EU talks about enlargement fatigue, but they should also be wary about integration fatigue. This delay highlights the weakness of the EU. A weakness that is being exploited by China, Russia, Turkey and other monolithic great powers.

The views expressed in this opinion editorial are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Municipality of Tirana.This article was originally published by Emerging Europe.

Epidamn Zeqo holds an MSc in European Political Economy from the London School of Economics and a dual MA in International Relations and Modern History from the University of St. Andrews. He is currently the Director of Strategic Planning and Implementation of Priorities Municipality of Tirana.

Source: http://neweasterneurope.eu 

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Speaking for POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast, Hahn warned that China’s “combination of capitalism and a political dictatorship” could appeal to some leaders in the region on the Continent’s southeastern flank, as the rising quiet ‘superpower’ makes a series of significant investments in infrastructure projects across the region.

Asked about the prospect of Beijing creating Trojan horses by using its financial clout to get political sway over countries that aspire to join the EU, Hahn cited the example of a highway in Montenegro being built and financed by China.

“This is exactly the case with this famous highway in Montenegro. And also this is a kind of pattern, or let’s say business model, by the Chinese to offer attractive or more or less attractive loans and if you cannot serve them, it’s turned into capital,” said Hahn to POLITICO.

“I think we should be aware about the strategic concept by China and react in an adequate manner. I think this will be one of the great challenges of Europe,” said Hahn, an Austrian conservative and former minister.

In the interview, Hahn pushed back against Macron’s view, who succeeded in postponing a decision on Albania and Macedonia starting membership talks until after the May election. He said citizens of Western Balkan countries “have the right to become [EU] members” and the EU faces a choice between exporting stability to the region or having instability imported into the bloc.

Hahn said he agrees with Macron that the EU has to reform itself — but said this could take place at the same time as Western Balkan countries conduct membership talks.

Hahn said he is “very confident” that negotiations for Albania and Macedonia could start next year, noting the process of vetting the countries’ readiness for negotiations has already begun.

“This is a very comprehensive work and I hope we can conclude it in a year to 14 months,” he said. “The aim is really to get a green light by all member states middle of next year.”

The EU’s current plans leave two Western Balkan countries, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina out of any clear time-frame, without even a tentative timeline for membership talks, while Serbia and Montenegro are advancing in their accession talks process.

FULL INTERVIEW AT POLITICO.EU

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The Balkan region was the center of the Turkish Ottoman Empire. That historical legacy has made the area a priority for Turkey\’s ruling AKP under recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey\’s growing influence was visible at this month\’s inauguration ceremony of Erdogan. While Western European leaders stayed away, five heads of state from the Balkans attended.

\”Since AKP has this mental construction of re-establishing the Ottoman past, it\’s [the Balkan region is] important for them,\” said professor Istar Gozaydin, who has studied the Balkans extensively.

\”The Balkans as a region, as it has for so many centuries, was under the Ottoman rule and influence. I do see the renaissance of Islamic identity of Turkish influence in the region,\” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, an expert on the Balkans at Ankara\’s Middle East Technical University.

\”Turkey is using smart power there culturally, economically and language-wise,\” he continued. \”When you look to those Turks living in the Balkans, they get more and more under the increasing Turkish influence.\”

Some European leaders are already voicing concern. \”I don\’t want a Balkans that turns toward Turkey or Russia,\” French President Emmanuel Macron declared in May. Erdogan quickly shot back, saying the comment was \”unbecoming of a statesman.\”

The Turkish economy dwarfs those of its Balkan neighbors, and economic muscle is at the forefront of Ankara\’s projection of influence. \”Turkey is building airports, even investing in several sectors, like in Bulgaria and Romania, from textiles to many others,\” Bagci said.

\”There is an aggressive economic policy toward the Balkan countries, which cannot compete with Turkey,\” Bagci said. \”In the Balkans, we have two big countries getting influence. One is Germany and the other one Turkey.\”

Trade has helped Ankara overcome past animosities. \”These countries, many of them, don\’t have automatic access to the EU [European Union], and many of them look to Turkey for trade,\” said columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website.

\’Quite close\’

\”During the recent Balkan war, Turkey and Serbia were at opposite ends of the fence. They looked at one another with great enmity. Today, we see Serbia and Turkey are quite close, despite differences over Kosovo and Bosnia and things like that. A country like Serbia values its friendship with Turkey, and I think it applies to a certain extent to countries like Croatia, too,\” Idiz said. He was referring to the events that led to the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Serbia is now Turkey\’s main Balkan trading partner, with $1 billion in commerce.

Reaching out to the Balkans\’ large ethnic Turkish population, through the promotion of religion and cultural awareness, is also an essential tool deployed by Ankara.

\”They are using religion. They are using diplomacy. Institutions like Tika and Diyanet have been working quite efficiently and hard in the region,\” Gozaydin said.

Tika is the Turkish state\’s development agency, while the Diyanet administers Turkey\’s Islamic affairs nationally and internationally. The two institutions are at the forefront of expanding Turkish influence in the Balkans.

\”They work with the authorities in those countries. They try to influence the politics there,\” Gozaydin said. \”In Bosnia, they are trying, for example, to be influential in the appointment of religious authorities so they can work together.\”

Turkey has been funding mosque projects across the Balkans, including two of the region\’s largest mosques in Albania and Bulgaria. Turkish cultural foundations also work to promote ethnic Turkish identity.

While Ankara has been successful in projecting its influence, there are signs of growing unease, Gozaydin warned. She said she had met quite a few people in the Balkans, including some authorities, \”who were not happy with Turkey trying too hard to have an influence on them. So that was considered to be an interference in their domestic politics.\”

\’Grave concern\’

Last year, the United States voiced alarm about Ankara\’s policy. \”The Balkans is an area of grave concern now,\” said then-national security adviser H.R. McMaster.

Ankara dismissed such criticism, contending that it was only re-establishing cultural ties that date back centuries and claiming that Russia and other European countries were jockeying for influence in the Balkans. In May, European officials held talks with western Balkan leaders in Bulgaria to reaffirm the \”European perspective\” of that region.

Given the Balkans\’ recent history of ethnic and religious conflict, however, analysts warn of the risk of a nationalist backlash if Ankara does not tread carefully.

\”The Turkish minorities, or Muslim minorities, yes, they are always considered as a potential threat by the majority of the Balkan countries,\” Bagci said. \”The more the Muslim identity gets stronger, the more populist movements in the Balkans, like in Germany and other countries, will increase and get stronger. This is the potential conflict.\”

Source: Voice of America

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This is more like a theatrical scenario of a western movie, rather than foreign policy. And not only Albania, but all Albanians as a nation blindly faithful to American interests in the region, will lose out and will be further weakened by Trump\’s new global type of politics, just as they did in 1945 at the Yalta Conference.

Trump is an anti-conventional president, highly controversial, flamboyant, instinctive and imposing. Through his spontaneous and unpredictable statements he is surpassing the imagination of most international relations analysts and  is leaving major politicians of the western alliance constantly gobsmacked.

Within a week on European soil, Trump caused an earthquake at the NATO summit by threatening to pull out the USA from the strongest military alliance in the world, commented that between NATO, the UK and Putin, the latter might be the easiest meeting, offended the British prime minister Theresa May at her own home turf by saying that her Brexit plan would not work while suggesting that the freshly resigned former foreign secretary Boris Johnson would make an excellent prime minister, as well as breaking at least two royal protocols during his meeting with Queen Elizabeth. And as if all these were not enough, a day before the Helsinki summit with Russian President Putin, he calls the European Union a foe of the United States.

Needless to go into further details of Trump’s global tales, it is now clear that the American President feels more comfortable with Kim Jong-un and Putin than with his western allies of Canada, Germany, France, UK and the Brussels technocrats, whom we ‘love’ so much around this Albanian corner of ours.

Trump plays politics as if it were a boxing arena of business, where there are no partners, only competitors. In such boxing arena, human rights and western democratic values belong only on paper. Just as a rough business beast, the new American President does not believe in alliances but favours a harsh trade war with one sided gains.

To be fair, Trump has stayed faithful to his sincere electoral slogan of ‘America First’, where pure commercial interests prevail above any international rights.

In this context, the post-war world order which was a fully American driven imitative and built upon and alliance of western nations ready to spread democracy as a governing standard across the world – has fallen!

This is actually not bad for the commercial and political entourage of the Trump family. Trump is rightly and ruthlessly serving the pragmatic interests of the United States by positioning his country not as a democratic power with the responsibility to spread democracy and prosperity across the planet, but as the toughest guy in the neighborhood, as a ‘gangster’ whom you should not even think of pestering in the future.

This is precisely why his popularity is soaring in the US. Average American voters, especially across the inner Bible belt, despite the indisputable global role of their country during the past 70 years, do not get the world, nor the good it brings the American economy and its global strength.

Locked within this isolationist mindset, Trump believes that the shaking of UN, EU and NATO foundations will position Washington ahead of other countries, while increasing his popularity at home. And he is right, because he acts through the logic of a naturally rough businessman who only thinks of his profit, not of the product he trades in the market.

It was alongside such terms that the Trump-Putin meeting took place – as two tough guys of respective rivalry neighbourhoods who shook each-other’s hands in order to protect their own commercial interests. This summit which benefited Russia more than the US, has angered numerous congressmen and senators in DC, some of whom has qualified the meeting as shameful, disgraceful and treacherous.

In fact, the content of the meeting and the new ‘love affair’ between Trump and Putin suggests that this summit resembles that of a second Yalta, decisive on the new world order which would seal the fates f many nations for a considerable amount of time.

The Trump-Putin summit reconfirmed the will of both countries to negotiate pragmatically purely on commercial terms, as two worthy global competitors and as the world’s largest undisputed nuclear powers.

And seen from the optical lens of such commercial and nuclear negotiations, exactly like the first Yalta Conference (which is ironically located in Crimea), Albania and Albanians as a nation will be further marginalized and ignored, if they fail to pursue a pragmatic agenda of building something for themselves.

It is crystal clear that the United States have lost interest in the Balkans, by delegating responsibility to pursue US political and diplomatic affairs in the region to ambassadorial level. In fact, the American approach towards Albania started to change after the Bush junior presidency, when Albania changed status on State Department drawers from a strategic regional ally to a candidate country for EU membership. Then the new priority of American foreign policy towards the small Balkan country during the Obama years was to support Albania’s EU integration – which de-facto meant a gradual withdrawal of the US from the region.

The fact that the Trump-Putin meeting comes immediately after the expression of harsh antagonistic notes by the US towards the EU, means bad news for Albania, for Kosovo and for all Albanians who wish to integrate into a ‘problematic’ entity for the US, such as the European Union.

And as if all this was not enough, political and commercial exchanges between Trump and Putin, where both will give up something to gain elsewhere, might result into a definitive departure of the USA from the Balkans, a region which is far from strategic economic interests of both powers, despite the Balkan legendary tales we keep telling each other. Such scenario is more painful for Albanians than any other nation in South East Europe, as they are indisputably the most pro-American people in the old continent.

This is why in this new global context, Albanians as a demographically diminishing people and highly provincial in every meaning of the word, must start thinking of their own pragmatic economic interests with the aim of redefining the alliances of the future. This includes strengthening links with that part of the American political spectrum which gets the region and its importance to American influence in Europe, despite the momentary Trump flamboyance and disinterest.

Now that the European Union has made it clear to us that they do not have much time for the Balkans, and after numerous scandals of drunk and fun loving European technocrats who keep telling us that our countries have a \’perspective\’, Albania’s foreign policy must start to build bilateral strategic alliances in order to respond to investing needs in the country, the potentials of which are not lacking. Serbia has been applying such strategy for years now, and with much success.

The primary challenge of Albanian foreign policy today remains the distancing from integration fairy tales and the orientation of our own national interests purely towards investing interests which generate employment and prosperity for those few millions left around our provincial corner of the world. Said simply in Bill Clinton’s words “It’s the Economy Stupid”.

Otherwise the Albanian nation will drown in the river of endless Balkan epos or will end up changing diapers at some old peoples\’ home  in Germany…

About the Author

Ralf Gjoni is the former Spokesperson of the Albanian Foreign Ministry, former Foreign Policy Adviser to the Speaker of the Albanian Parliament as well as a regular political commentator and contributor regionally on foreign policy and regional affairs. Mr. Gjoni benefits from an extensive international experience and insight knowledge having worked in the Public Affairs & PR industry since 2000 in the US, UK and the Balkans.

Copyright @2018 TiranaEcho.com  All Rights Reserved

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The meeting between Li Keiqang and Edi Rama took place in the Bulgarian capital where China gathered leaders of 16 Central Eastern European nations in the framework of the 16+1 Initiative supported by Beijing.

Both Li and Rama praised the good momentum in bilateral ties between two countries which next year will celebrate 70 years of diplomatic relations. China is already the largest foreign investor in Albania after it bought its main oil company Bankers Petroleum and Tirana’s only international airport.

Li told Rama that China is ready to deepen its practical cooperation with Albania and import more quality and specialty agricultural products from the latter while repeating the Chinese pledge to encourage competitive Chinese businesses to invest in Albania for win-win results.

“China will work with Albania to build an automated agricultural cooperation center and enhance cooperation in water resources utilization and disaster prevention,” – said Premier Li.

Albania’s government did not give much information on the meeting but in a short statement it confirmed that the “focus of the meeting was the bilateral cooperation programme as well as concrete projects in agriculture, tourism, port and water infrastructure and culture.”

Rama also vowed to work with China to turn next year’s 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations into a success, and step up communication and coordination within the 16+1 framework.

Albania was one of the first countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and it later sponsored a UN resolution which consequently landed with the recognition of PRC as legitimate government of China by the United Nations. China has never forgotten such efforts and has constantly wanted to boost ties with its small European ally.

Despite the later rupture of relations by Albania’s dictator Enver Hoxha, ties have been strengthened during the last three decades with China continually pushing for a boost of trade relations and investment with its old communist ally.

Last year, China’s first-ranked Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli visited Albania in what was seen as another high level visit to boost Chinese presence in the small Balkan country.

Zhang a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, China’s highest ruling council, said that “China is satisfied with the sound development momentum of bilateral relations, and is willing to work with Albania to further consolidate bilateral traditional friendship, deepen practical cooperation between the two countries, respect and accommodate each other’s core interests and major concerns, in a bid to promote greater development of bilateral relations.”

Copyright @2018 TiranaEcho.com  All Rights Reserved

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Neither prime minister offered additional details, such as who is pushing this plan or with whom it is being negotiated. This vagueness generated criticism that Rama had not only failed to consult with parliament on this matter of grave importance to his country but perhaps he himself was not fully consulted.

Albania has been used before to host undesirables. In 2005, the United States sent five inmates from Guantanamo Bay there. Between 2013 and 2016, Washington also relocated 2,901 Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) extremists there from Iraq, which had been trying to expel them since 2003.

Now, the Trump administration is telling Albania to host and de-radicalize former Islamic State (ISIS or IS) fighters who originated from the Balkans region. According to Colonel Bardhyl Kollcaku, head of Albania’s Intelligence and Security Agency, “We have the appropriate experience to contribute in the study and addressing the phenomenon of foreign fighters.”

If the MEK had been de-radicalized, Kollcaku’s assertion would be credible. But they weren’t.

In 2013, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pragmatically removed the MEK from the US terrorism list to allow members to be sent to third countries so that Iraq could be rid of them. European countries would not take them because of their terrorist past. Instead, the Albanian government agreed to take them only on the promise that a de-radicalization institute be established to reintegrate the extremists back into society.

This did not happen. The allocated budget, lodged with the American embassy in Tirana, has not been touched. Instead, after Donald Trump became president and set about dismantling every detail of Barack Obama’s legacy, the MEK were “allowed” to regroup.

Regrouping meant that the MEK would continue to call for violent regime change against Iran, backed by US extremists like Rudi Giuliani and John Bolton who now occupy influential posts in the Trump administration. As a result, Albania has become a front-line enemy state in relation to Iran.

Regrouping also meant re-enslaving members, who are not paid and have no human rights. It also meant building a closed camp in a remote part of the country to which Albanian authorities and security services have no access. As though Albania wasn’t having a hard time already cracking down on criminal and mafia gangs, now the MEK are implicated in criminal activity. Among several individuals arrested for money laundering last month, two Israelis were found to be associated with FARA NGO. This is the same company involved in building the closed military training base in Manez to which rank-and-file MEK fighters were moved last autumn.

At the same time that was happening, word got out that the widows and orphans of killed IS fighters would soon be transferred to the MEK’s deserted buildings in the Albanian capital of Tirana. Such rumors were dismissed at the time. Now it appears that the truth is much worse. Actual IS fighters will be sent to Albania.

It’s possible, however, that the IS fighters will follow a similar trajectory as the MEK in Albania. Western powers have seen Syria and Iraq fall away from their influence. Hezbollah governs Lebanon, and a restive population wrapped up in the politics of Palestine is challenging the stability of Jordan. These are uncertain times in the Middle East. Some individuals in Western power structures have broached the possibility of creating a bespoke covert mercenary force to bring fresh chaos and violence into the mix. Although the MEK has been such a handy tool for aggravating Iran, former IS fighters could, with the right training, constitute a similar force against other countries.

And although John Bolton recently remarked that regime change against Iran is now off the Trump administration’s agenda, continued patronage of the MEK belies that claim. So, this is not just Albania’s problem. The West needs to urgently ask, “What use is the Islamic State now?”

Massoud Khodabandeh is the director of Middle East Strategy Consultants and has worked long-term with the authorities in Iraq to bring about a peaceful solution to the impasse at Camp Liberty and help rescue other victims of the Mojahedin-e Khalq cult. Among other publications, he co-authored the book “The Life of Camp Ashraf: Victims of Many Masters” with his wife Anne Singleton. They also published an academic paper on the MEK’s use of the Internet. Anne Khodabandeh is a UK expert in anti-terrorist activities and a long-standing activist in the field of deradicalization of extremists. She has written several articles and books on this subject, along with her husband, who is of Iranian origin.

Source: lobelog.com

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The Young Ottomans movement became the Young Turks. Turkish officers posted in the Balkans before the first world war were sympathetic to the ideas that formed the Turkish republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk was born in Thessaloniki, once part of the Ottoman Empire and now part of Greece.

This lends an interesting note of irony to the current Turkish president’s choice of Bosnia for a rally ahead of snap elections on June 24. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan picked Bosnia as the only European venue to campaign after three EU countries refused to allow Turkish politicians from campaigning on their soil.

Thousands of Erdogan’s devoted followers arrived in Sarajevo from various parts of Europe to see and hear him — and crucially — to cheer him on. Interestingly, while in Bosnia on May 20, Erdogan raised the subject of an assassination plot against him. It evoked associations with what happened in Sarajevo in the months leading up to the first world war.

Having abandoned many of his pious Kurdish voters in Turkey’s south-eastern provinces, Erdogan now seems to want to extend his constituency beyond Turkey’s borders. In Sarajevo, he brought up Ottoman grandeur and bashed the West. “European countries claiming to be the cradle of civilisation have failed,” he said, adding that voters would “not only be choosing a president and deputies” in parliament but also “making a decision for our country’s upcoming century.”

The vote will decide the nature of Turkey’s government and democratic freedoms for the foreseeable future. With less than a month to go before the election, Erdogan doesn’t seem to care about European concerns over his badly concealed irredentism. However, he is aware that two of his main political challengers have roots in Thessaloniki.

Though Meral Aksener, leader of the relatively new Iyi party, was born in Turkey, her parents were part of the massive population exchange between Ataturk and his Greek counterpart Eleftherios Venizelos in 1923. The swap of Turkish and Greek subjects of the collapsed Ottoman Empire was part of a mutually agreed, peaceful and successful project that could, in some ways, be considered ethnic cleansing.

Muharrem Ince, the secular main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP’s) nominee for president, claims his paternal grandparents were from Thessaloniki.

For Erdogan, the Balkan expansion of his constituency is a pipe dream.

Ince poses a considerable challenge. Ten years younger than Erdogan, Ince is a worthy match for the president. His talent for riposte has energised CHP rallies. Even so, Ince may be swimming upstream. The anti-Erdogan camp may be hoping Ince will successfully challenge Erdogan if the presidential election goes into a second round.

However, a recent poll by MAK Consultancy shows Ince at 23.9% while Erdogan is far ahead with 51.4%. MAK’s polling is generally considered reliable and, if the numbers are right, Erdogan would win in the first round, eliminating the chance for Ince to challenge him one-on-one.

The main problem for Ince — as well as with Aksener — is that neither is seen as devout as Erdogan. Ince and Aksener employ populist rhetoric and Turkish nationalism. Both have made negative comments about Syrian refugees in Turkey. Both have taken anti-Western positions. However, even though both seem to be trying to edge closer to the mosque, their devout credentials may be suspect to pious, solidly Erdogan-supporting voters.

In other words, Ince and Aksener may run into resistance posed by the collective memory of conservative voters and the new middle classes. They fear a return to the old days of military authority.

Perhaps this is why Erdogan seems confident. He is more focused on dealing with economic turbulence than on attacking Ince and Aksener in his trademark pugnacious style.

The asymmetrical campaign continues and in the absence of independent television news, Erdogan’s challengers can only hope he will trip himself up.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journalist, blogger and co-founder of P24, the Platform for Independent Media. He writes regular columns for Süddeutsche Zeitung, and the Arab Weekly, with specific focus on Turkey\’s domestic and foreign policy issues.

His opinion articles are published in The New York Times, The Guardian, El País, Index on Censorship, Svenska Dagbladet and Utrikespolitiska Magasinet.

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